Results of the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2024

The AHK World Business Outlook is based on a regular DIHK survey of the member companies of the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad, delegations and representative offices (AHKs). German companies active abroad provide a direct assessment of their own business prospects and the economic development on site. The companies' investment and employment plans are surveyed by AHKs, as are the biggest risk factors. In spring 2024, the survey will collect feedback from more than 4,300 German companies, branches and subsidiaries worldwide, as well as companies with close ties to Germany.

The key findings of the survey:

German companies are once again predominantly optimistic about the development of the global economy at their international locations. They are more confident than they have been for two years.

According to the survey, almost a third (31 per cent) of the companies surveyed expect an economic upturn at their locations in the current year. In autumn 2023, the figure was 22%. One in five companies (19%) still anticipate an economic slowdown, compared to 28% in autumn.

Globally, the business situation has barely improved compared to the previous survey. It is still below the level of the previous year 2023 and slightly below the long-term average. Business expectations have also increased only minimally. Accordingly, companies are also holding back on investments at their international locations.

Companies at their international locations still see low demand as the greatest business risk (45 per cent). For the second time in a row, the risk of uncertain economic policy conditions has risen slightly to 43 per cent. In addition to economic risks, the structural challenge of a shortage of skilled labour remains another key risk for companies with 39 percent of responses.

The current results of the AHK World Business Outlook show that the signs are pointing to a slight recovery in the global economy. However, companies are not yet able to benefit sufficiently from this due to uncertainty and risks.

The DIHK is adjusting its export forecast for 2024: After a decline in German exports of -1.8 per cent in 2023, exports will at least reach a black zero this year.